Percentage Play in Grand

Bridge is a game of percentage play. You will win most of the time if you bid, play and defense with the best percentage one. At love all, the biddings (precision style) are as below:

South	West	North	East
1C	pass	1H	pass
1S	pass	2H	pass
4C	pass	4NT	pass
5S	pass	5NT	pass
6H	pass	7H	all pass

West started with ♦6 and East play ♦Q. Here are the cards.

Dummy

♠ AKJ105

♥ AQ6

♦ 10432

♣ Q

Declarer

♠ 43

♥ KJ8754

♦ A8

♣ A93

How do you proceed? Truthfully this is a good grand with several chances to fulfill it. There are many ways to bring home the contract. First, to play for 5 cards tricks in spade by direct finesse to the 10 and then to the Jack (percentage play for 5 tricks). Other way is to ruff a club and grab 4 tricks spade only. This play needs a good distribution of outside trump, 2-2. The better way is to combine these two lines. Draw two round of trump ending in declarer hand (South). If trump breaks 3-1, you are in right hand to finesse spade for 5 tricks. If trump break evenly, then you can play spade for 4 tricks only. The better percentage play is to make a ruffing finesse. You will succeed if East hold the ♠Q or West has a singleton or doubleton ♠Q. Or you may change your plan if you think that spade is divided 3-3 outside. So, always combine your chances.

Doom to Fail

Without any opposition bidding, you arrive at 3NT.

South	West	North	East
1D	pass	1S	pass
1NT	pass	3NT	all pass

West lead ♥6, most likely from 5 cards. How do you manage to bring home the contract? Here are the cards.

Dummy

♠ Q852

♥ KQ5

♦ AK

♣ 10864

Declarer

♠ K96

♥ J10

♦ QJ986

♣ A93

How do you proceed? As usual, you have to count your total tricks in notrump contract. You already have 7 triks, 1 from heart, 5 from diamond and 1 from club. The 8th trick can be easily establish, either from spade or from heart. How about the 9th tricks? Say, you play spade to Queen, won by East with Ace. Best defense is attacking the club. Won the 2nd club, you switch to heart for 9th tricks. West will win with &heart;A, play club and attack your entry in spade. If the ♠Q win, you will play heart. West will win and attack club to cut your 'bridge'. You eventually fail to book your contract, as West with long heart and spade Ace will prevent you to enter your hand. How about play heart directly at trick 2? Best defense, west will win with ♥A and return club. You may hold up and win the second club. Cash all winners in dummy and play spade to King. You will succeed if east has &spade;A along with club honor. Although this play only 50% chance with best defense, I think this is the best way to handle this contract. What's your opinion?