Percentage Play (3)

In a recent tournament, I found an interesting board as displayed below. The bidding is simple, 1NT from South and North raises it to 3NT.

		Dummy
		♠ 10 8
		♥ A K
		♦ 9 8 5 4
		♣ A 8 7 6 5
		You
		♠ K Q 5 4
		♥ Q 10
		♦ K J 4 3
		♣ K J 3

Contract 3NT. West started with small heart. What is your plan?

First of all, let's list some requirements to fulfill the contact. Club shall be divided evenly with the queen is on your right. What's else?

If you can count for 5 tricks in club, you have 7 sure tricks. In what suit(s) will you take the other two? One trick easily develop from spade, but it will be only the 8th, how about the ninth?

Let's analyze our chance. Will we bring home the contract if East has the ♠ A? Assume that after winning the 1st trick in dummy, you play spade. Best defense for East is to play, and you win with the ♠ K. Next you play club to ♣ A, and finesse club. Success!!! But you don't have entry to take the ♠ Q.

Another possibility is to immediately finesse the ♠ J by running the ♠ 10. But, alert defender will cover the it. Event if you have the ♠ 9, this line is only a 50% chance of success. (Remember, you don't have the nine).

How about playing the diamond? You need to steal a diamond trick first. Assume at trick 2, you play a diamond, East plays low, you have to rise with the King. When it wins, you can directly establish your 9th trick in spade. If East is an alert defender, he may rise with ♦ A, then switch to heart. You still have chance when East also has the ♦ Q, so you can finesse for the ninth. It's a difficult hand, although your combined strength is 26 HCP with a 5 running tricks, you still have difficulties to bring home the contract. In my opinion, playing the diamond is the best percentage play to land the contract.